Welcome to The Morning Dump, bite-sized stories corralled into a single article for your morning perusal. If your morning coffee’s working a little too well, pull up a throne and have a gander at the best of the rest of yesterday.
Quantron Announces Massive New Hydrogen Trucks
Hydrogen’s been experiencing a bit of a rebirth in recent months. From the hydrogen hybrid Hyundai N Vision 74 to news of a hydrogen-powered BMW X5, this renewed interest in fuel cells should make up for some of the shortcomings of batteries. Now, it’s the commercial vehicle sector’s turn to really consider hydrogen. Truck company Quantron just unveiled its QHM FCEV 60-2000 truck, a hydrogen-powered rig that’s expected to pack up to 1,500 km (932 mi.) of range. Perhaps more surprisingly, Quantron unveiled another rig with an estimated 1,500 km of range called the QHM FCEV 44-2000. So how has Quantron done it? Well, really big tanks is the short answer. The tanks that enable 1,500 km of range can hold 116 kg of hydrogen, an absolutely insane amount of energy given hydrogen’s energy density of 120 Mj/kg. Shoehorning these tanks into trucks requires a little bit of clever thinking, but Quantron has pulled it off and integrated the tanks into the chassis. The announcement comes as fuel cell manufacturer Ballard Power Systems takes a minority stake in the truck company. Speaking in a media release, Ballard Power Systems’ CEO seems fairly stoked on the arrangement. Eighteen months, huh? That’s not a very long amount of time, so I’m very interested in watching this play out. Should things actually launch as planned, this could be a thorn in Elon Musk’s side as Tesla has promised an all-electric battery-powered semi truck with no firm timeline on manufacturing. Could battery power be entering this race on the wrong foot? [Ed Note: The nice thing about hydrogen for long-haul trucking is that, unlike with regular passenger vehicles, you generally know where people are going so you could, in theory, stack up fewer hydrogen stations in obvious places. – MH]
Hyundai And Iveco Team Up On Hydrogen Trucks
Hyundai and Iveco have unveiled something new at IAA Transportation 2022, a Hyundai fuel cell stuffed into an Iveco chassis cab. While it remains a prototype for now, it holds incredible promise regarding the future of commercial vehicles. Called the eDAILY FCEV, this fully-functional prototype features Hyundai’s 90 kW hydrogen fuel cell system and a 140 kW electric motor. Six fuel tanks offering a combined storage capacity of 12 kg of hydrogen doesn’t sound like a lot, but hydrogen’s energy density should mean that 12 kg are plenty. The prototype packs an impressive driving range of 350 km (217 miles), a maximum payload of three tons, and a refueling time within 15 minutes. While it’s easy to not take hydrogen seriously, it’s one of the most viable ways of powering zero-emission commercial fleets. Hydrogen refueling is quick, reducing downtime, while hydrogen itself is incredibly energy-dense, likely enhancing towing capability over current battery technology.
The Automotive Industry Is Spending Less On Ads
If you feel like you haven’t been seeing as many car ads as you used to, you’re not going crazy. Reuters reports that auto industry ad spending over the first seven months of 2022 fell 4 percent year-over-year to $4.8 billion. It’s no secret that cars are a hot commodity right now, and when new models aren’t just sitting around on lots, there isn’t a ton of incentive for automakers and dealerships to spend money on advertising. While there’s a chance that ad spending will rise once supply catches up with demand, any possibility of that happening won’t occur for at least a few months. The overall ad spend was 12.7% less compared to the same period in pre-pandemic 2019 at $5.50 billion, as spending from dealerships, traditionally among the biggest in the industry, suffers due to a shortage of vehicles.
Subaru Has A New Crosstrek
I’d like to apologize to all Subaru fans for not covering the new Crosstrek on Thursday as I was going through the rather lengthy process of an EV road trip. Still, a new Crosstrek is here, and while the changes aren’t massive, here’s what’s worth noting. While the exterior styling is best described as almost identical to the old model, the interior looks like a massive improvement. It’s largely identical to the interior in the new WRX, which means that ergonomics and material selection should be much nicer than on the old car. In addition, the new Subaru Global Platform should pay dividends in cabin noise and structural rigidity.
While powertrains for the North American market haven’t yet been revealed, I wouldn’t expect anything radically different from what’s in the current car. Look, the new Crosstrek isn’t trying to reinvent the wheel, but that’s okay. It looks like a pragmatic little car that should have decent snow capability. There’s something fairly pleasing about having a car that simply works, and the Crosstrek should be a perfectly good daily driver. So long as the new Crosstrek doesn’t move the needle too far on pricing, it should be a smash hit. It shouldn’t alienate the legions of Crosstrek fans who feel that the Forester has simply grown too big, plus the interior improvements should be very welcome indeed. Maybe Subaru can even get Hobo Johnson for the ad campaign… assuming they even do an ad campaign.
The Flush
Whelp, time to drop the lid on today’s edition of The Morning Dump. It’s Monday, which means we’re setting down the Torx sockets and getting back into the daily grind. Still, I’d love to know what car stuff you got up to this past weekend. Whether you picked up body supplies like I did, went for a quick rip around some backroads, or finally saved up enough to buy your own lift, let’s hear all the wonderful car things last weekend brought you. Lead photo credit: Quantron The test drive went smoothly and she’s shifting better than ever. It seems like I managed to get it all right on the first try, which is a fantastic feeling. This was one of the biggest projects I’ve done to date (I know it’s pretty basic stuff to a lot of folks, but it’s a big deal for me) and I’m feeling pretty pleased with myself. Plus, there’s still a good 2-3 months of driving left before the snow and salt hit. Time to have some fun! 2: Hydrogen is very hard to work with. It is stored at very high pressure and hydrogen embrittles many metals it comes into contact with: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_embrittlement 3. It requires a completely new infrastructure. Electricity and gasoline are already commonly available everywhere. The electrical grid will need upgrades but all the basics are already there. For that matter if you have an battery EV, you have a way to fill up your “tank” at home. Also, those seats, why does it look like they have cheap ill fitting auto parts store covers on them that are already sagging? Are they are the trendy mom jeans of car seats? Hydrogen may find a niche in long distance air travel and ocean shipping, but otherwise it won’t make sense unless carbon taxes are HUGE. In the late 1970’s, Checker Motor Company (yes, that Checker) in response to the gas crisis, started experimenting with LPG fueled Chevrolet 305’s. (Or 350’s, the history isn’t 100% clear there.) It took them less than 12 months to make it an orderable option on the A11/A12. That’s it. Fuel is fuel. If the engine can burn it, then it simply becomes a question of storage and delivery. Checker solved this by locating a very large ballistic wrapped cylinder in the trunk. A cylinder which could survive crashes and would not explode. Do you know how long it took manufacturers to develop a hydrogen fueled bus from an LPG fueled bus? Months. Literally months. Hydrogen’s problem has always been storage and nothing else. All that Quantron had to do was solve the storage problem. Which is increasingly a solved problem itself; see the Toyota Mirai. They have a tank that stands up to the worst condition crash tests already. The issue with hydrogen is that we can’t store it in liquid form, only pressurized gaseous form. Why? Because keeping hydrogen liquid requires true cryogenic temperatures. You have to keep it below 33K even while you’re pumping it. Otherwise, you get an exothermic reaction. Otherwise known as ‘big fucking boom.’ And the amount of pressure in hydrogen tanks directly correlates to their capacity. Higher pressure means more hydrogen storage. So a Type IV tank in this application has to handle 700 bar or 10,000psi rupture strength and will have a normal working pressure of 5,000psi. Contrast with the highest pressure GM DI systems where fuel is run at a mere 2,250psi. A Type V composite tank can get to 1,000 bars. They started testing those in 2014. Anyone doubting their 18 month timeline is, frankly, just plain wrong. Hydrogen conversion – particularly in applications that have existing LPG and CNG implementations – is trivial. And the technology is far further developed than any of you seem to realize. There have been hydrogen fueled vehicles on the roads for years upon years now. Years of incremental improvements have continually marched forward with no fanfare. There is no cult of hydrogen, just a lot of companies getting the hard work done. You can, at this very moment, order all the parts you need to convert a bus to hydrogen from a number of companies. These aren’t magical space-elevator shit. AC Transit in California ran a study using diesel, BEV, and FCEV (hydrogen-generator) buses over 2H20. Their FCEBs logged 112,233 miles versus the BEVs at 64,648. The diesel fleet was the most reliable at 94% availability, the BEVs were barely above half useful at 57% availability, but the FCEBs? 85% availability – despite being over 2 years old already. Oh did I neglect to mention they were 2017-2018 FCEBs? Uh-huh. Like I said: people have been quietly doing the work a long time. New Flyer has the Xcelsior already available as a normal production H2 vehicle. Uses the Ballard FCmove-HD H2 fuel cell driving a Siemens ELFA3 motor system giving over 370 miles of range on typical transit service routes and a 6 to 20 minute refuel (shorter than diesel.) Iveco expects to launch that hydrogen fuel-cell heavy duty chassis within 2 years. Proterra has quietly spent their time since 2009 delivering over 550 buses, many with H2 fuel-cell APUs. Van Hool has been offering 5 different H2 fuel cell models for a few years now. Batteries don’t work. If batteries worked as well as the cultists claimed, everyone would be spending all their time and money on NCM battery vehicles. They aren’t. The BEVs largely exist to shut the cultists up; trolleybus (catenary EV systems) and H2 fuel-cell have already proven themselves superior by orders of magnitude in every single metric there is. So yeah. 18 months to production deliveries? I suspect the only thing keeping them from shipping the H2 heavy duty stuff sooner is supply chain issues. It’s no secret that cars are a hot commodity right now, and when new models aren’t just sitting around on lots, there isn’t a ton of incentive for automakers and dealerships to spend money on advertising. Conversely, as the recession settles in and buyers run for the hills, expect to see the ads everywhere. I expect them to start ramping very, very soon. New subcompact SUV sales (one of the hottest segments) is down 24%, compact crossovers taking up 23.8% of the market are down 18%, midsize SUVs are down 12%, and large pickup trucks are down 18%. That, is fucking huge. Last year saw a 7 year low due to supply issues. Now with supply issues largely resolved but the economy in shambles worldwide, sales across the board are collapsing. Repossessions have also been skyrocketing despite record low unemployment, because those numbers ignore the people working 3 jobs just to make rent. They can’t afford the average new car price of $47k or average used car price still hovering around $29k. Much less with interest rates over 6% and an average monthly payment of $700. Repos for subprime are over 11%, but repos for prime more than doubled to over 4%. Across the board, repossessions have more than doubled from 2021 to 2022, more than 70% of repos at auction had loans originated in 2020 or 2021, and the number of repossessions continues to increase. Outstanding loans were already at well beyond record levels and only increasing drastically year over year. Even the experts are saying there is an extremely dangerous auto bubble, and it’s starting to pop. The only thing holding it back is that banks are reluctant to dump the cars into a collapsing market because that will just increase their losses. But eventually they’ll be forced to, because storage is running out. Fast. After all the money and time spent on fixing the supply chain? Manufacturers gotta sell cars. That’s what they exist to do. And advertising is the only way they have to try and increase demand. But all the ad spend in the world isn’t going to help when people can’t afford them. But hey, if you can hold out a while longer, you might see the return of 0/0/0 financing and below MSRP pricing. It’s Monday, which means we’re setting down the Torx sockets and getting back into the daily grind. Still, I’d love to know what car stuff you got up to this past weekend. This weekend was shit. Authorized a shitload of money at my one mechanic because I hate working on Jeeps without a lift. Particularly brakes. I have a method, especially when bolts are likely to be seized. And I just can’t do it without the car actually flown. Thursday last week, client had their car towed home, ‘sounds like rod knock.’ Ha ha. Like I’m ever that fucking lucky. Got the photos Saturday. Fully magnafluxed and salted cast iron block, next to zero machining, and somehow the fucking lifter gallery fractured. No, not the lifter bore; big goddamn chunk sheared from bore to bore, seized the intake lifter (fully closed thank fuck,) but completely destroyed all four lifters. And of course the block is scrap. Got nothing but lies and the runaround from the local Saab “specialists” about even diagnosing the A/C and transmission. So now I’m having to try shops two hours away. (I have to play extra nice with EPA, so no refrigerant recovery, no touchy.) It’s not even that fucking big an ask. Either you can diagnose and decide if you’re up for fixing it, or you can’t. That’s all that was asked. One of them outright lied to my face, which means they’re for sure ripping off customers by lying about what cars actually need, too. And of course, retail fucking sucks. Two stores said they had the guide pins I need (M12x1.5) since my set is only M14+ and inventory turned out to be incorrect at both stores. But hey, I finally bought a cordless impact gun and ratchet to supplement my air tools. Yay, right? Nope. Charger worked once and then got murdered by the defective ratchet battery. That’s because they were using crappy Chinese-made BYD busses https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-20180520-story.html I’ve read other studies that tell a different story. Studies that involve the Toronto Transit Commission and their BEV bus test fleet. And the availability of their BEV bus fleet is a lot better than 57% for 2/3 electric bus models they were/are testing. And the 1 one model that wasn’t? Yeah, that was a POS BYD bus. Here is a summary of the report: https://stevemunro.ca/2022/04/10/ttc-ebus-study-final-results/ And here is the actual 100+ page report: https://ttc-cdn.azureedge.net/-/media/Project/TTC/DevProto/Documents/Home/Public-Meetings/Board/2022/April-14/Reports/10_TTCs_Green_Bus_Program_Final_Results_of_TTCs_Head_to_Head_eBus_Evalua.pdf?rev=38416aa6e8f3466b9e66ffa46adf2626&hash=D22151C0BD927C565CA1A5866F4E5E4A See page 19 for fleet availability In terms of availability, the Canadian-Made New Flyer and US-Made Proterra had an availability rate of over 80% by the end of the study period. The Chinese-made BYD bus had much worse service availability. So the real issue is the people in California need to buy some higher quality Canadian or American made buses… and take a pass on BYD’s Chinese-made crap. And hydrogen? Yeah TTC tried that in the past and it was found to be expensive-to-operate CRAP. They have exactly zero hydrogen buses now… but they have a 60 BEV bus test fleet and are planning on ordering more. https://ttc-cdn.azureedge.net/-/media/Project/TTC/DevProto/Documents/Home/Public-Meetings/Board/2022/July-14/9_Green_Bus_and_-Wheel-Trans_-Green_Bus_Program_Update.pdf?rev=eecb766b6f8941bf88e730c795464add&hash=300F1F826505C94AA0581E8509E93D9F And those hydrogen buses they’re using in California might be more reliable than the BYD garbage buses… but that’s not saying much. It would be a different story if they got some buses from Proterra, New Flyer or Novabus (which is the Canadian reincarnation of the old GM Diesel Bus operation after GM sold off that business). As a matter of fact, 2023 is the last year they plan on ordering any more diesel-powered buses. From 2024 and on, all orders will be battery-electric buses… and exactly ZERO hydrogen buses. And what is also interesting is on 30 of the buses in the test fleet, they are testing overhead charging rails… enabling them to be charged on the fly or as they come into bus stations. As for vehicle-related tomfoolery, I spent more time this weekend getting acquainted with the oil-injected 2-stroke Mercury on my in-laws’ boat. Darn oil level float switch was on the fritz, and had to get creative. Once that was sorted, she got up and down the Mississippi just fine. I’ve become a halfway decent manual driver given my circumstances of living in the city and only knowing 1 person with a manual car within 4 hours of me, but man…that base Crosstrek with the stick was a chore to drive between the anemic engine and the lousy transmission feel (An aside: I’m assuming the manual they offer is different from the WRX’s, right?). I felt worse about my skills after driving it for a few hours, but maybe it was for the best because I decided to seek out more manual wheel time as a result. SO…just chuck the powertrain from the WRX in there. Problem solved. An attractive and useful but underwhelming to drive car becomes an amazing one. I know they’ll never do it because Subaru has given up on enthusiasts, but I think it would sell. I’d buy one in a second and suck up having a manual in the city to have a car that’s that fun and functional. In regards to car stuff this weekend…just the usual. I got some spirited driving in on Saturday and washed my car. I don’t really have the time/motivation to hand wash it all the time so I’ve taken to going to a local do it yourself place that has the automatic laser washers as an option. I’ve read that drive through washes wreak havoc on your paint, so I try to avoid them. The laser ones don’t touch your car in any capacity and do an okay job. I usually have to follow it up with a microfiber cloth to get out all the stubborn stuff, but that’s fine with me. For $16 I’ll take it. I usually vacuum my interior while I’m there too, and there are always enthusiasts kicking around with cool rides who I talk to when I’m feeling social. It’s become a go-to Saturday activity for me…spirited drive then a wash. I’m an introvert who works in a field where I have to interact with people all week, so my alone time is sacred and very zen…not to mention I had to give up drinking in 2020 because I’d become a raging alcoholic….and unfortunately when you do that you need to get creative with your free time to avoid the temptation to lapse back into your old habits. In a way becoming an enthusiast has been a godsend for me in that regard. When in doubt, take the car out! Personal opinion from my own experience: It’s an awful transmission and I would never own one again. The TY85 is stronger but still not great to shift. I will abandon Subaru before I will ever buy a CVT from Subaru. WXR is the only option they offer, but no manual in the top trim and no hatch / wagon. I’ll probabyl keep my manual subarus as long as I can, but at some point they’ll become more project cars than daily drivers – and they’re not that interesting to me as project cars. I think they might reach the 1957 nuclear-powered Ford Nucleon levels of success 🙂 It’s essentially magnesium hydroxide and silly putty…add water and get a crap-load of H2 out on demand. The leftover goo can be recycled to make more power paste. Of course, it doesn’t solve sourcing the hydrogen in the first place, but in terms of transport, I think it beats tanks. What the fuck do you think the “C” in CNG stands for? Those are highly explosive tanks, in literally tens of thousands of buses, and huge chunks of UPS and FedEx’s fleets. And statistics says: they get in accidents, regularly. Buses get in accidents and catch fire. These things happen every single day and you have never heard of a bus taking out a city block or a UPS van exploding and killing bystanders. Know why they DON’T blow up? Because the people designing this stuff aren’t nearly as stupid as you think they are, and they’re most certainly orders of magnitude smarter than you. There’s numerous safety measures to ensure tanks don’t get punctured or rupture in the first place, and even more safety features to ensure in the event of a catastrophic rupture the fire is controlled. https://www.theautopian.com/why-this-natural-gas-powered-bus-shooting-gigantic-columns-of-flame-is-an-example-of-safety-tech-at-work/ For instance I know that CNG doesn’t permeate metals and doesn’t cause embrittlement, but hydrogen does. And now you know it too, so you’re welcome! 🙂 The bad news is, hydrogen goes boom if you look at it funny. Huge range between LEL and UEL and very low ignition energy. Unlike natural gas, which only ignites in a narrow range of mixes with air. The good news is, unlike natural gas it doesn’t tend to stick around and pool up if there’s a leak. Most of it’s going straight up, so no problem unless there a roof to capture it. Could be a problem for tunnels are are higher in the middle, like the Eisenhower on I-70.
